Adaptive strategies and preventive measures to address liquidity risks in Ecuadorian cooperatives

Abstract

The study aimed to propose adaptive strategies and preventive measures to address liquidity risks in Ecuadorian Savings and Credit Cooperatives. To achieve this, the effectiveness of the Value at Risk (VaR) liquidity model was evaluated, using historical volatility as a key indicator to foresee potential adverse scenarios. The methodology combined quantitative and qualitative approaches, analyzing secondary data from the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy, covering 205 cooperatives in segment 1. Data processing tools such as Excel and Power Pivot were used to handle and categorize large volumes of information. The results showed the usefulness of the VaR liquidity model in estimating the monthly and annual volatility of deposits, allowing cooperatives to anticipate unexpected outflows of funds and adjust their levels of liquid assets accordingly. Significant fluctuations in deposit balances were observed throughout 2023, with notable increases and decreases. The study concluded that applying this model is important for improving financial risk management in cooperatives, emphasizing the need for an updated regulatory framework that facilitates the adoption of these tools. Strict liquidity policies, crisis simulations, and a solid risk management culture were recommended to ensure the financial sustainability of the sector.

Keywords: Financial liquidity, Quantitative models, Savings cooperatives, Operational risk, Financial stability.